What is really happening in Egypt? A flat out revolution.that's what. For now, it doesn't appear to be Islamic in nature and origin, but that bears watching as events progress. It does appear to be a popular uprising for freedom and democracy at this moment, but that could clearly change. Mubarak has been in power for 30 years, thanks to hazy elections and fuzzy math in vote counting. He normally wins with 90% of the vote, so I have to believe that those elections have been a sham. Before him were the great Anwar Sadat and Gamel Nasser. Egypt, under their leadership has been a force for peace and stability in the region for several years, but repressive and unaccountable to its own people. Those chickens have come home to roost and Egypt stands at the abyss of chaos.
There is no turning back. Democracy and freedom will prevail. The only question is how bad will it get before the changes needed are made. Will the military side with Mubarak and prop up the status quo, or will it allow citizens to protest and stay on the sidelines? Will it oppose or support the police in the crackdown that has begun, but will almost surely escalate? Will the movement morph into an Islamic Revolution, or make Egypt as a secular democracy?
No one can know for sure, but it seems clear to me that democracy may yield a government in Egypt far less interested in peace and stability in the region. We can, and should, support the democratic aspirations of the Egyptian people, but we may not like what comes out of that. Look no further than the Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, or Iraq and Afghanistan for that matter, to see some of what the results of our support for democratic reforms in the region might bring about. Until then, I plan to pray for peace and justice, in Egypt and the rest of the world.
I am hopeful because the Muslim Brotherhood is not the same as many other radical Islamist groups...this is not to say they aren't dangerous...but, they aren't Osama or Hamas. If El Baradei can get in there and help forge a coalition...there is a chance for real justice and real change.
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